韩和元:无限膨胀的社会储蓄、有限的投资渠道与房价上涨

  摘要:伴随_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>社_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不断_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发展,越来越_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成功_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人士加入到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>社_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会富裕_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人群的行列。得益于此,而形成的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不断集聚的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国内私_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人资本,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不断膨胀的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>社_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会储蓄。众所周知,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金从_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>长期来看将_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>受到通货膨胀的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>影响而缩水,长_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时间持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金并_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不是明_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>智的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选择,这就使得_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这些富_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人们迫切_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>找到口。与此形成鲜明对照的是,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国家允许的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>渠道太窄。

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  从1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>60_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>印度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成立之日起,荷兰_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人依靠其发达的海_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际贸易和称霸_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商业_blank class=infotextkey>共和国,石排,从贸易_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>获得的巨额_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>财富,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>没_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>王_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公贵族的奢华宫殿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>它们源源_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不断_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中产阶级_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人们的钱袋里。17世纪后期荷兰的国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入比英伦三岛之和还_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高_blank class=infotextkey>30%~40%。

  繁华的都市,寮步,车水马_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>龙的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>街道,衣香鬓影的派对,纸醉_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金迷的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>生活,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新贵富豪的奢华_blank class=infotextkey>不输豪门望族。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这是好莱坞_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>电影《了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不起的盖茨比》描绘的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>场景,是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20世纪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代繁华_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>社_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>生活的剪影。

  而于_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东方,战_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>后的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>得到了长足_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发展,尤其是在19_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>60年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>正式实施国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入倍增_blank class=infotextkey>计划后。到1970年_blank class=infotextkey>时,其_blank class=infotextkey>gNP和国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入的实际年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平均_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长率达到_blank class=infotextkey>11.6%和_blank class=infotextkey>11.5%,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超过_blank class=infotextkey>计划_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>规_blank class=infotextkey>定的目标;实施_blank class=infotextkey>计划的_blank class=infotextkey>第七年,便_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>实现了国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长1倍;_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人均国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入按_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格计算,从19_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>60_blank class=infotextkey>年的_blank class=infotextkey>395_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元,增加到1970_blank class=infotextkey>年的159_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元;_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10年间实际工资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平均_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长8_blank class=infotextkey>3%。

  与其相_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>似的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>还_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我国的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区。1951—1987年,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>连续40年年均_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长达到9%,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>世界之首。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>劳动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>密集型的口导向模式为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区赚取了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>外汇,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>外汇储备达到700亿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元,仅次于_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本,是当_blank class=infotextkey>时_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人均_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>外汇储备_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>除了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>官方的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>财富储备,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区的民间_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入也随之_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>提升。岛内_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>居民工资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入快速_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>年终奖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金之巨更是史无前例。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>除了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公务员的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>年终奖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一般相对较低,只_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一个半月的工资外,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车等低利润_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>员工的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>年终奖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于其三个月的工资,而水泥卡特尔等利润更_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>八个月的工资。对于_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>近_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>繁荣的证券_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>员工来说,_blank class=infotextkey>他们的奖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金则达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>到了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于其70个月、90个月,甚至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>100个月的工资。更极端的例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>子是,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾证券_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>交易所总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经理赵孝_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风的奖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金则达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>到了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新台币_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1000_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万元,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大约_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于普通_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人500个月的工资。从1981年到1987年,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区国民储蓄额_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平均_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>每年递增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>21.46%,一度占到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>台湾_blank class=infotextkey>gNP的_blank class=infotextkey>38.5%。

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  实_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>这条路行_blank class=infotextkey>不通,那另类_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>理财_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产品呢?比如_blank class=infotextkey>近几年兴起的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>挂钩_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>艺术品和红_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>酒的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产品,虽然让一_blank class=infotextkey>部分_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资者_blank class=infotextkey>获得过丰厚的利润。但_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这类_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>概念_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产品和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>艺术品_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>联_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>系的过于紧密,而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>知道,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>艺术品本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>身就_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要很_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高的鉴赏门槛。

  …….

  也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就是说,民间资本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>还是无处可去。这样一来,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大量闲置的、迫切_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>寻找_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>路的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金,这就必然导致_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人们的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>注意力过度_blank class=infotextkey>关注_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>几个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>限的途径,就只能在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股市和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>楼市之间撞来撞去,进而使得_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金快进快去,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大量涌入、涌去,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>造成_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场的剧烈_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>波动。

  注:此文为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>韩和元《_blank class=infotextkey>不堪承受的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房市之_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重》一书书稿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>第一篇《解码_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大涨之谜》的_blank class=infotextkey>第四章。

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